New York Stock Exchange
⊙The three major stock indexes in New York showed a downward trend due to the rebound of the Producer Price Index (PPI) in January
⊙The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 38627.99, down 0.37% from the previous session, while the S&P 500 Index closed at 5005.57, down 0.48%, and the Nasdaq Index closed at 15775.65, down 0.82%
⊙These three indexes, which had been on the rise for 5 weeks, experienced a decline after 6 weeks this week.
Producer Price Index
⊙The unexpected increase in the January PPI, which rose by 0.3% compared to the previous month according to the U.S
⊙Department of Labor, surpassed the expert forecast of 0.1% and reached the highest level in 5 months
⊙The core PPI increased by 0.6% from the previous month, showing the highest level in a year since January of last year.
Impact on Interest Rates
⊙As producer prices rebounded, bond yields in the U.S
⊙rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.3% after rising by about 6 basis points from the previous day
⊙Additionally, hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve officials have negatively affected the market sentiment.
Federal Reserve Actions
⊙The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco cautioned the need to resist the temptation to act swiftly when it comes to rate cuts and emphasized the importance of being prepared to respond flexibly to the evolving economic situation
⊙Market expectations point to the first rate cut by the Fed in June, with the University of Michigan reporting a slight increase in the one-year inflation expectation to 3.0%.
Market Expectations
⊙According to the FedWatch tool by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the probability of a rate cut by the Fed in May stood at 35.7%, while the probability for a rate cut in June reached 74.1%
⊙The VIX, a measure of market volatility, recorded a 1.64% increase from the previous session, reaching 14.24.
Consumer Sentiment
⊙The preliminary calculation for the Consumer Sentiment Index in February showed an improvement to 79.6 from 79.0 in the previous month
⊙With short-term inflation expectations rising and consumer sentiment improving, the anticipation for a rate cut by the Fed is expected to diminish.
최종 견해
●주식 시장 지수가 1월 생산자물가지수(PPI)의 반등으로 하락세를 보였다
●1월 PPI는 예상을 상회하는 0.3% 상승을 기록하며 5개월 만에 최고치를 기록했고, 이로 인해 미국의 채권 수익률이 상승하고 시장 심리에 부정적인 영향을 미쳤다
●연방준비제도 총재들의 호크시 발언 또한 시장 심리에 부정적인 영향을 미쳤다. 미국 샌프란시스코 연방준비은행 총재는 금리 인하에 대해 신속히 대응하는 유혹을 견디고 경제 상황에 유연하게 대응할 필요가 있다고 경고했다
●시장 기대는 6월에 연방준비제도의 첫 금리 인하를 가리키고 있으며, 시카고 거래소의 FedWatch 도구에 따르면 5월에 대한 금리 인하 가능성은 35.7%로, 6월에는 74.1%로 높아졌다
●소비자 심리지수는 2월에 개선되며 단기 인플레이션 기대가 상승하고 소비자 심리가 개선되면서 연방준비제도의 금리 인하 기대는 줄어들 것으로 예상된다.
